Posted by: Stephen Jones on Thursday, October 22, 2009
This past week, Pakistan launched an anticipated military offensive into the South Waziristan tribal agency, a stronghold of the Mehsud tribal Taliban, but the militants have already demonstrated considerable resistance in the strategically important town of Koktai. The military seeks to conclude the campaign within two months, but overestimated expectations of airpower could lead to a longer mission, with retaliatory attacks highly probable during the course of the conflict.
TranSecur Assessment
The offensive in South Waziristan is Pakistan's most ambitious and important response to the country's growing Taliban threat. The agency is the primary stronghold of the TTP, the country's largest Taliban association, but any notable victory will not come easy. Proponents of airpower had reportedly assumed that the operation would only take two weeks, but this week's battle of Koktai highlighted the enemy's notable skills and formidability. Concerns are also growing that a number of Taliban militants have regrouped in southern Punjab province, potentially creating a more troublesome front. Additionally, while the deal with the Waziri Taliban might prove advantageous now, it is awash with potential future problems; certainly, Washington, a principal source of funding, will not condone continued neutrality with the factions. The focus now, however, is the defeat of the TTP.